- Greece debt crisis (70% probability)
- Spain, Portugal, Ireland debt crisis (40% probability)
- Collapse of the Euro (15% probability)
- Collapse of the UK Pound (25% probability)
- Widespread economic upheaval in Europe. (10% probability)
- Debt crises in the American States (40% probability)
- Bursting of the chinese bubble (10% probability)
- Iran testing nuclear weapons (30% probability)
- "Good taliban" coming to power in Afghanistan (40% probability)
- Collapse of the dollar and the US Economy (5% probability)
Friday, February 26, 2010
Doom and Gloom: Prelude to a new world order
When the news media is gung ho about the recovery, green shoots, stimulus package and other bullshit, a storm is brewing. There are various things that could go wrong at this point of time like
First week @IIMB
The first year at IIMB is almost drawing to an end. I would like to reflect upon what has happened over the past one year and how it has changed me. I would like to start with the first week in IIMB which was one of the most unforgettable moments of my life.
Zeroth Week: The zeroth week started with me picking up the chits for the room selection. I just came to know that there was not enough capacity and hence some of the people were given room in the "Executive Block" where they had to share a room with a stranger. I was absolutely petrified. When I picked the chits it turned out to be I-312 which was located in a corner of IIM-B far from all the noise. I was delighted. I came one day with my mother and set up the room and went away in one hour.
First week: The first week started innocuously with the registration procedure which was very efficient and took only a few minutes. Immediately I was asked to go to a place where they took my photograph for the ID card.
Afterwards, I was talking to some of the people in my section and just whiling away my time little knowing what lay in store afterward. I also setup the computer connection as well as some aspects of my room. Dutifully I noted down the time table and the events scheduled for the day. I don't exactly remember how the afternoon of that day went by. In the evening we had the first event in which the director followed by the PGP Chair addressed us. Then we were given the PGP Rules. Later it was followed by a SPIC MACAY event by a IIMB Alumnus who played classical music. After dinner at the mess, it was time for the official ragging. We had the first GBM (General Body Meet) in which we were blasted for not choosing the "mentors" as well as being rude on the public forum. I was basically thinking what is wrong with these people.
Next at 10pm we were given the task of getting signatures from 5 different PGP2s from 5 different blocks of which one has to be girl. Additional condition is that you should not have known the person before(colleague in a company or the same college). After a little humiliation I was able to get all the necessary signatures and then waited for the next task. Next task was some kind of a treasure hunt in order to know the college well.
I did not even bother to hunt for anything and I just copied answers for others and submitted it. When I tried to sleep that day, I was having some difficulty due to the immediate change in timings. I was never accustomed to sleeping at 2 in the night and I had some difficulty.
Day 2 : Day 2 started at 10pm with some lectures from library, computer center, placement chairperson, PGP Chairperson, Gender Sensitivity, Ethics and so on and it pretty much took time till the evening. In the evening the "fun" started. We had a lecture from a BCG Partner which lectured for more than 2 hours. After that we had a PlaceGBM in which I inadvertently laughed and was thrown out in front of the full auditorium.
We were asked to prepare our resume and I did not know the procedure for that. I then got to know how to do it and then by 2AM I was able to sort how to do it and I was writing some random stuff.
Day 3: I slept at 3AM and then woke up at around 6:30AM. I was dead tired but worked on the resume and got it to some level. Then I had to go to an external event done by "Breakthrough" which involved some stupid games which I was too tired to participate. My mind was completely blank at that point of time and I was only focused on completing the resume on time. It was 5 and the bus got delayed due to some reason. I was ultra frustrated as I lost one hour and the same could be used on sleep or on resume. Then when I reached IIMB I missed some event, finished my resume and then submitted before deadline. After this there was a Tutorial on Financial accounting in which I simply sat through. It was meant to scare and confuse people. However I was quite confident that Financial Accounting could never even be as complicated as Electromagnetic waves or Amplifier Design with multiple poles and feedback circuits. After this so called tutorial we had the PDP session in which the whole batch had to come at 12 in the night and some people danced and put on some performance. Due to a power failure the event got over at 2AM. After that I sat down to do a Porter's five forces analysis of the Pharma industry which got over at 5:30AM. That was the closest I had to a night out.
Day 4: I don't exactly remember what we had in the morning, but in the afternoon we had a Vikassana session which involved doing a survey in the Banashankari Slum. After completing that we had to do a second iteration of the resume which had to now be submitted at 2:59:59AM. I completed the second iteration by 12 but for some reason I did not want to sleep. At 3AM there was a drama enacted by the whole Placecom. At 3AM there was a huge hungama at the computer center where people were desperately working on their resumes. Finally I was able to submit it by 4:45AM.
Day 5: The morning of Day 5 involved one murder mystery game and we had to move all over IIMB to get clues and solve the puzzle. That took the whole of the morning session. In the afternoon we had a case workshop and it was quite good. After the case workshop I went home in-order to get a white shirt which was needed for the next day. I got a waste white shirt and a old pant fully knowing what was about to happen the next day. After I went back to IIMB in the night I had a sound sleep for almost 10 hours and then I was fresh for the next day. My other unfortunate classmates were stuck in the PDP sessions and were completely exhausted.
Day 6: Day 6 had three major events. One was a talk by Abhishek Thakore who was an IIMB Alumnus, two was a speech by Nandan Nilekani who had just been appointed for the UID project and third was giving of the first term books by the PGP Office. Both the talks were fantastic except for a few minor glitches caused by people asking really dumb questions to Mr Nilekani. Then after all the talks were over we were called for a Pre Placement Talk by some unknown company. I knew it was a plant but then other people thought it was for real. The "company" offered a summer internship for 10,000 rupees and a person in audi shouted out who is going to work for only 10K. The "company" officials got angry and walked out. Then the placecom came in full force and started yelling out at us. The whole PGP2s descended on us and we were asked to go to the EBGF square. Some of the PGP1s took the "initiative" and tried to exhibit "leadership" but to no avail. After we all assembled in the EBGF square the dunking began and all of us were thoroughly wet.
Thus the first week came to an end. We were inducted into IIMB. Then there was a L^2 party held that night and since I am a complete and absolute teetotaller I did not even go close to that party and I had a sound sleep.
Zeroth Week: The zeroth week started with me picking up the chits for the room selection. I just came to know that there was not enough capacity and hence some of the people were given room in the "Executive Block" where they had to share a room with a stranger. I was absolutely petrified. When I picked the chits it turned out to be I-312 which was located in a corner of IIM-B far from all the noise. I was delighted. I came one day with my mother and set up the room and went away in one hour.
First week: The first week started innocuously with the registration procedure which was very efficient and took only a few minutes. Immediately I was asked to go to a place where they took my photograph for the ID card.
Afterwards, I was talking to some of the people in my section and just whiling away my time little knowing what lay in store afterward. I also setup the computer connection as well as some aspects of my room. Dutifully I noted down the time table and the events scheduled for the day. I don't exactly remember how the afternoon of that day went by. In the evening we had the first event in which the director followed by the PGP Chair addressed us. Then we were given the PGP Rules. Later it was followed by a SPIC MACAY event by a IIMB Alumnus who played classical music. After dinner at the mess, it was time for the official ragging. We had the first GBM (General Body Meet) in which we were blasted for not choosing the "mentors" as well as being rude on the public forum. I was basically thinking what is wrong with these people.
Next at 10pm we were given the task of getting signatures from 5 different PGP2s from 5 different blocks of which one has to be girl. Additional condition is that you should not have known the person before(colleague in a company or the same college). After a little humiliation I was able to get all the necessary signatures and then waited for the next task. Next task was some kind of a treasure hunt in order to know the college well.
I did not even bother to hunt for anything and I just copied answers for others and submitted it. When I tried to sleep that day, I was having some difficulty due to the immediate change in timings. I was never accustomed to sleeping at 2 in the night and I had some difficulty.
Day 2 : Day 2 started at 10pm with some lectures from library, computer center, placement chairperson, PGP Chairperson, Gender Sensitivity, Ethics and so on and it pretty much took time till the evening. In the evening the "fun" started. We had a lecture from a BCG Partner which lectured for more than 2 hours. After that we had a PlaceGBM in which I inadvertently laughed and was thrown out in front of the full auditorium.
We were asked to prepare our resume and I did not know the procedure for that. I then got to know how to do it and then by 2AM I was able to sort how to do it and I was writing some random stuff.
Day 3: I slept at 3AM and then woke up at around 6:30AM. I was dead tired but worked on the resume and got it to some level. Then I had to go to an external event done by "Breakthrough" which involved some stupid games which I was too tired to participate. My mind was completely blank at that point of time and I was only focused on completing the resume on time. It was 5 and the bus got delayed due to some reason. I was ultra frustrated as I lost one hour and the same could be used on sleep or on resume. Then when I reached IIMB I missed some event, finished my resume and then submitted before deadline. After this there was a Tutorial on Financial accounting in which I simply sat through. It was meant to scare and confuse people. However I was quite confident that Financial Accounting could never even be as complicated as Electromagnetic waves or Amplifier Design with multiple poles and feedback circuits. After this so called tutorial we had the PDP session in which the whole batch had to come at 12 in the night and some people danced and put on some performance. Due to a power failure the event got over at 2AM. After that I sat down to do a Porter's five forces analysis of the Pharma industry which got over at 5:30AM. That was the closest I had to a night out.
Day 4: I don't exactly remember what we had in the morning, but in the afternoon we had a Vikassana session which involved doing a survey in the Banashankari Slum. After completing that we had to do a second iteration of the resume which had to now be submitted at 2:59:59AM. I completed the second iteration by 12 but for some reason I did not want to sleep. At 3AM there was a drama enacted by the whole Placecom. At 3AM there was a huge hungama at the computer center where people were desperately working on their resumes. Finally I was able to submit it by 4:45AM.
Day 5: The morning of Day 5 involved one murder mystery game and we had to move all over IIMB to get clues and solve the puzzle. That took the whole of the morning session. In the afternoon we had a case workshop and it was quite good. After the case workshop I went home in-order to get a white shirt which was needed for the next day. I got a waste white shirt and a old pant fully knowing what was about to happen the next day. After I went back to IIMB in the night I had a sound sleep for almost 10 hours and then I was fresh for the next day. My other unfortunate classmates were stuck in the PDP sessions and were completely exhausted.
Day 6: Day 6 had three major events. One was a talk by Abhishek Thakore who was an IIMB Alumnus, two was a speech by Nandan Nilekani who had just been appointed for the UID project and third was giving of the first term books by the PGP Office. Both the talks were fantastic except for a few minor glitches caused by people asking really dumb questions to Mr Nilekani. Then after all the talks were over we were called for a Pre Placement Talk by some unknown company. I knew it was a plant but then other people thought it was for real. The "company" offered a summer internship for 10,000 rupees and a person in audi shouted out who is going to work for only 10K. The "company" officials got angry and walked out. Then the placecom came in full force and started yelling out at us. The whole PGP2s descended on us and we were asked to go to the EBGF square. Some of the PGP1s took the "initiative" and tried to exhibit "leadership" but to no avail. After we all assembled in the EBGF square the dunking began and all of us were thoroughly wet.
Thus the first week came to an end. We were inducted into IIMB. Then there was a L^2 party held that night and since I am a complete and absolute teetotaller I did not even go close to that party and I had a sound sleep.
Crazy and dangerous media
English Media in India can be called at best irresponsible and at worst traitorous and seditious. Firstly, some of the well known media channels and newspapers are totally corrupt and have lost all the journalistic ethics. They are available for sale by the highest bidder. Some of the news media do it so openly and shamelessly and there is absolutely no one to question this. The general public who are ignorant as always actually believe what is given in the newspapers are true.
Although most of the articles given in the newspapers are "true" , it is untrue when you consider it in a broader context. What this means is that although the facts given in the article may be true it is definitely not presented in the proper manner and is designed to confuse the reader and give false information. This can be done in two ways.
The first way is to sensationalize even the simplest of problems and to oversimplify complex problems and convert it into a one minute sound byte.
The second way is to scare the people by constantly creating fear and by telling that danger is everywhere.
One needs to only read Times of India carefully in order to understand what I am talking about
Although most of the articles given in the newspapers are "true" , it is untrue when you consider it in a broader context. What this means is that although the facts given in the article may be true it is definitely not presented in the proper manner and is designed to confuse the reader and give false information. This can be done in two ways.
The first way is to sensationalize even the simplest of problems and to oversimplify complex problems and convert it into a one minute sound byte.
The second way is to scare the people by constantly creating fear and by telling that danger is everywhere.
One needs to only read Times of India carefully in order to understand what I am talking about
PAK -FA: Russians are back
PAK-FA is the acronym for Perspektivny aviatsionny kompleks frontovoy aviatsii
which the fifth generation fighter aircraft jointly produced by India and Russia.
It is the first fifth generation aircraft produced outside the United States and looks to be quite promising.
Here are some photographs and drawings of the PAK-FA. When this bird is inducted into the Indian Air Force in 2017, a single one can probably take out a complete Pakistani Squadron. Bangladesh recently abandoned its quest for developing an air-force because the Indian Air Force is too strong. Induction of 220 Su-50s and the indigenous MCA might probably do the same for the Pakistani Air Force.
which the fifth generation fighter aircraft jointly produced by India and Russia.
It is the first fifth generation aircraft produced outside the United States and looks to be quite promising.
Here are some photographs and drawings of the PAK-FA. When this bird is inducted into the Indian Air Force in 2017, a single one can probably take out a complete Pakistani Squadron. Bangladesh recently abandoned its quest for developing an air-force because the Indian Air Force is too strong. Induction of 220 Su-50s and the indigenous MCA might probably do the same for the Pakistani Air Force.
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